Turning Hindsight Into Foresight
Why tough decisions feel easy in hindsight, and how to use that to your advantage for your next big decisions. Foresight is 20/20.
What some of you may know is that I recently quit my full-time, corporate job as a Data Analyst to pursue my entrepreneurial ambition. From the outside, this looks bold and exciting. A new adventure lies ahead! What most people don’t know is how long I struggled with making this decision. I highly doubted myself, my capabilities and my sanity. I lost sleep just thinking about leaving a comfy job, and I encountered pushback from people around me.
But then, once the decision was made it felt like a weight was lifted off my shoulders and my mind was clear. I felt tricked; suddenly, the decision seemed obvious, even though just days (or moments) before, I was still struggling. This universal feeling, often called “hindsight is 20/20”, can leave us feeling stuck. If we truly ‘knew-it-all-along’ then why stress over it? That had me wondering how we could decrease this bias and actually have more 20/20 foresight.
Ways to Decrease Hindsight Bias
Reflecting on my own long decision process, there are three things that have helped me along the way:
1. Borrow Others’ Hindsight
Talking to people who are ahead of you on ‘the curve’ helps you in discover future obstacles. In my example, I spoke with people who had recently quit full-time jobs or started their own businesses. I would ask things like what led them to their decision, how they felt after making the decision, what obstacles or challenges they are now facing and what they regret. Having these conversations helped me in gather up the courage subconsciously and most importantly, in quiet the worry in me.
2. Naming and Writing Down Your Fears
When you’re in a state of overwhelm, it’s hard to know what has gotten you so tripped up. What has helped me overcome this is talking with someone about all the things you may fear (even if it’s just a little). You can then name the fear and write it down. My fears looked like this:
Financial stability
Expectations from family & friends
Making a mistake
Unpredictability
I could then look at this list and write out worst- and best-case scenarios to help separate emotion from logic. For the financial stability fear, my worst-case scenario was not earning anything for a couple of months. I would then ask myself (and my partner) “Can I live with that?“ In our case, the answer was ‘Yes‘.
3. Shrink the Decision
Instead of “I’m quitting my job forever“, I said to myself “I’m taking 3 months to grow my business and see.“ This made the decision feel smaller, more reversible, and far less risky.
BONUS: I encountered a poem on worry that really struck a chord with me. I have it hanging on the wall and read it whenever my heart starts thumping. Credits to Azlan for this piece of writing (see his original post on LinkedIn here).
With these three steps I was able to make my big decision. Still, it’s good to know that most big decisions follow this rhythm:
Long simmering (doubt, stress, overthinking)
Sudden snap into action
This can feel impulsive in hindsight, but the truth is, your choice starts forming in those quiet anxious moments. The overthinking, the what-ifs, the gut-feeling that won’t go away are all part of the process. You’ve been laying the groundwork for that snap moment all along.
If you’re curious you can follow along my with my small venture on instagram, or check the webshop. Let me know what you think, I’m always open to feedback.
Now, I'd love to hear from you. What big decision is on your mind? Or…
How do you decrease your own hindsight bias?